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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 12 2012
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE SHOWS A CONTINUED INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES IN ALL QUADRANTS.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB.  USING A BLEND OF
THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT. 
ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHEAR OVER NADINE WITH
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN.  A BROAD TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM MAY BE ASSISTING THE OUTFLOW TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.  NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...FROM
72 HOURS AND BEYOND NADINE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A BELT OF
STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE
LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 25-30 KT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM AND CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE.  IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS STILL SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

CENTER FIXES SHOW A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...
AND THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13.  NADINE CONTINUES TO
HEAD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TAKES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. 
NADINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERLIES BEYOND 72 HOURS...SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
CURRENT NHC TRACK LIES BETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF...AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND THE QUICKER 0600 UTC GFS SOLUTION.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1215 UTC ASCAT
OVERPASS...WHICH SAMPLED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND
REVEALED A LARGER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 19.1N  47.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 20.3N  49.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 22.1N  51.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 24.1N  52.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 26.3N  53.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 30.0N  52.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 32.5N  49.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 34.5N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER ROTH/PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC