Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ISAAC


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
400 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012
 
ISAAC CONTINUES TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS  310/5
KT...BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SLIDELL AND FT. POLK
LOUISIANA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE
FOR THIS ADVISORY. ISAAC SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND
EVENTALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. BY DAY 3 WHEN THE REMNANT CYCLONE IS
OVER THE UPPER-MIDWEST...ISAAC SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WHEN
IT INTERACTS WITH WEAK MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...AND LIES BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL.

STRONG BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WATER IN THE
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND ALSO SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THEY HAVE
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCED SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ALONG
WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 KT. THOSE STRONG RAINBANDS WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD WESTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS
METROPOLITAN AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...ISAAC COULD WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND IT SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS NO INDICATION IN ANY
OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE THAT ISAAC WILL BE ABLE TO ACQUIRE ANY
BAROCLINIC ENERGY THAT COULD CAUSE IT TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WHILE IT IS OVER THE UNITED STATES.
 
SINCE ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS...THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED THREAT OF FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AREA AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.
 
NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAGES INDICATE THAT STORM SURGE HEIGHTS
OF NEAR 7 FEET ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION
OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THESE AREAS...WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT.

PUBLIC ADVISORY TIMES HAVE REVERTED BACK TO A 3-HOURLY CYCLE. THE
NEXT INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 700 PM
CDT/0000Z.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 30.0N  91.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 12H  30/0600Z 30.7N  91.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/1800Z 32.0N  92.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  31/0600Z 33.8N  93.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  31/1800Z 35.7N  93.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  01/1800Z 38.6N  91.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/1800Z 40.0N  88.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/1800Z 40.5N  83.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:27 UTC