ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012 500 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2012 THE INTENSIFICATION OF GORDON HAS CONTINUED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AS THE EYE HAS CLEARED AND WARMED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE T5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1800 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GORDON SHOULD BE NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER THAT TIME. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD DUE TO THE STRONGER INITIAL INTENSITY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH GORDON IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...AS THE DEEP-LAYER CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR 50N/20W STEERS GORDON QUICKLY EASTWARD. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS NORTH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TUG GORDON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLES...A SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND FASTER...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MODEL THROUGH DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 34.1N 36.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 34.4N 33.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 35.4N 29.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 36.8N 25.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 38.0N 22.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 39.0N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1800Z 39.0N 16.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:22 UTC