Hurricane GORDON

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
500 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2012
 
THE INTENSIFICATION OF GORDON HAS CONTINUED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AS THE EYE HAS CLEARED AND WARMED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE
COOLED AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE T5.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB AT 1800 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 90 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. GORDON SHOULD BE NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS THE CYCLONE
WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER THAT TIME. THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD DUE TO THE STRONGER
INITIAL INTENSITY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48
HOURS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH GORDON IN 36
TO 48 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS IF
NOT A LITTLE SOONER. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS AS
THE SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...AS THE DEEP-LAYER CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR
50N/20W STEERS GORDON QUICKLY EASTWARD. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS NORTH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL TUG GORDON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLES...A SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
FASTER...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS CLOSE TO THE 
ECMWF MODEL THROUGH DISSIPATION. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 34.1N  36.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 34.4N  33.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 35.4N  29.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 36.8N  25.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 38.0N  22.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 39.0N  19.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/1800Z 39.0N  16.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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