Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression FIVE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012
 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY
DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH DVORAK
T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 1.5 AND 1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE
LATER TODAY IF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES.  IF THIS IS
THE CASE...THEN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY.
 
LATEST FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 280/18.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE INCREASES...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE CYCLONE RESPONDS TO A WEAKNESS TO THE
NORTH.  THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE AND MAINTAIN A
WESTWARD HEADING.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN
TO THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF/GFS OUTPUT ON DAYS 4-5.
 
UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES INDICATE 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH...AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THIS SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. ASSUMING THE
SYSTEM SURVIVES...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN 4-5 DAYS...WHERE INTENSIFICATION COULD
OCCUR. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS LINE
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 12.8N  52.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 13.3N  55.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 13.7N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 14.0N  61.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 14.6N  64.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 15.7N  71.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 16.7N  76.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 18.0N  80.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:16 UTC