Tropical Storm DEBBY

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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
 
IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS MORNING.
DEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...040 AT 3
KNOTS...WHILE THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.  THIS HAS PROMPTED ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA COAST. 

DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT...PARTICULARLY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.   

THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE COMPLEX. THE GFS INSISTS ON A TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS DEBBY BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE HWRF BUILD A RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY AND FORECAST A WESTWARD TRACK.  GIVEN THE
WESTWARD TURN INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE
HISTORICAL STRONG RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
MOVES DEBBY INITIALLY A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS BUT THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS
NOT THE CASE YESTERDAY...MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD
SOLUTION.  WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK
AT ANY TIME.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 28.0N  86.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 28.5N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 28.5N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 28.5N  86.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 28.7N  87.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 29.0N  88.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 29.5N  90.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 30.0N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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