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Subtropical Storm BERYL


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
 
BERYL HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF BERYL. 

BERYL HAS TURNED SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS MOVING AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE
THAN EARLIER...NOW AT ABOUT 8 KT. A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO KEEP BERYL MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND BRINGS THE
CENTER OF BERYL TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA COASTLINE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER LANDFALL THE MODELS BECOME QUITE
DIVERGENT...HOWEVER...AND DIFFER ON HOW FAR INLAND THE CYCLONE GETS
BEFORE IT RECURVES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH.
SEVERAL OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND
HWRF BRING BERYL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES INLAND BEFORE IT REVERSES
ITS COURSE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SHOWS RECURVATURE VERY
NEAR THE COAST. THE DIFFERENCES IN THESE SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF BERYL IN THE MODELS AND TO SOME DEGREE THE
POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH BLENDS THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE...IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH LANDFALL AND THEN VERY NEAR THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE SUBTROPICAL STORM IS ENTANGLED WITH A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING AND BERYL
EVOLVING INTO A FULLY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED AS BERYL WILL BE OVER THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS BY THEN. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 31.6N  76.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 31.1N  77.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 30.5N  79.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 30.4N  80.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 30.5N  82.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/1200Z 31.2N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/1200Z 32.5N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  31/1200Z 36.0N  73.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:07 UTC