Tropical Depression TWELVE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122011
800 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011
 
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION...WITH SEVERAL NEW CLUSTERS RECENTLY FORMING NEAR THE
CENTER. THE MEXICAN RADAR FROM MOZOTAL DEPICTS A CURLY CUE-SHAPED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT ROTATING AROUND A BROADER CIRCULATION...WITH A
COUPLE OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
2.0 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. WITH NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. EVEN THOUGH THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATER OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC BASIN...IT HAS LIMITED TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MOVING
INLAND. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE DEPRESSION POSSESSES A LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON-TYPE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  THIS SUGGESTS
THAT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST WITHIN 48 HOURS AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. THERE COULD BE SOME SHORT-
TERM WOBBLES OF THE TRACK IF THE CENTER REFORMS OR DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS. OUTSIDE OF THOSE VARIATIONS...THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN. A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW INDUCED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IS FORECAST
TO CARRY THE CYCLONE ON A NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD COURSE
AFTER IT MOVES INLAND. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL TRACK WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...EVEN AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 15.1N  93.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 15.6N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  13/1200Z 15.9N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  14/0000Z 15.9N  91.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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