ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011 THE STRUCTURE OF JOVA CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY SHEAR. VERY DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 55 KT AND 65 KT FROM SAB/TAFB...AND A LARGE AREA OF 45 KT WIND VECTORS WERE NOTED IN A RECENT ASCAT PASS. THE LOWER DVORAK ESTIMATE APPEARS TO BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE GIVEN THE SHEAR PATTERN AND THE ASCAT DATA... SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 55 KT. THE CURRENT NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD ABATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS JOVA MOVES CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY AFTER TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLOWER RATE OF STRENGTHENING IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION BY LATE SATURDAY. THE LATEST NHC PREDICTION REMAINS BETWEEN THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THE MOTION HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 335/7. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. BY LATE SATURDAY...A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST IS LIKELY DUE TO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE SPEED DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN RATHER NOTABLE...ALTHOUGH THE EARLIER HUGE DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT REDUCED. THIS TYPE OF SITUATION USUALLY WARRANTS A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND SINCE THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL SOUTHEASTWARD TREND IN THAT GUIDANCE...THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 14.6N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 15.3N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 15.9N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 16.5N 109.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 16.9N 108.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 18.2N 106.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 20.5N 104.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:19 UTC