Tropical Storm JOVA

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TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011

THE STRUCTURE OF JOVA CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY SHEAR.  VERY DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  SUBJECTIVE
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 55 KT AND 65 KT FROM SAB/TAFB...AND A
LARGE AREA OF 45 KT WIND VECTORS WERE NOTED IN A RECENT ASCAT PASS. 
THE LOWER DVORAK ESTIMATE APPEARS TO BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE GIVEN
THE SHEAR PATTERN AND THE ASCAT DATA... SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
IS SET TO 55 KT.  THE CURRENT NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD ABATE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS JOVA MOVES CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY AFTER TOMORROW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL SHOW A SLOWER RATE OF STRENGTHENING IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION BY LATE SATURDAY. 
THE LATEST NHC PREDICTION REMAINS BETWEEN THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS AND
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THE MOTION HAS TURNED TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 335/7.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW
DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO.  BY LATE SATURDAY...A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
OR EAST-NORTHEAST IS LIKELY DUE TO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE SPEED DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS
REMAIN RATHER NOTABLE...ALTHOUGH THE EARLIER HUGE DISAGREEMENT IN
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT REDUCED.  THIS TYPE OF SITUATION USUALLY WARRANTS A
FORECAST CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND SINCE THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL
SOUTHEASTWARD TREND IN THAT GUIDANCE...THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED
IN THAT DIRECTION.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 14.6N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 15.3N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 15.9N 110.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 16.5N 109.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 16.9N 108.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 18.2N 106.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 20.5N 104.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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