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Post-Tropical Cyclone EUGENE


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 06 2011
 
EUGENE HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 15 HOURS AND
THEREFORE IS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC
ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON THE
EARLIER ASCAT PASS...THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB...AND THE VIGOROUS CIRCULATION STILL SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT
2 OR 3 DAYS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING OVER WATERS OF 22-23C.  GIVEN THE
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND THE FACT THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS
RETAIN A SURFACE LOW UNTIL ABOUT 72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL HOLD OFF SHOWING DISSIPATION UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
AS EUGENE WEAKENS...IT SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOW-
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST...OR EVEN SOUTH OF
DUE WEST BEFORE DISSIPATION.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER BASED ON THE
SPEED OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON EUGENE...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 19.3N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  07/0000Z 19.7N 129.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/1200Z 19.9N 131.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/0000Z 20.1N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/1200Z 20.1N 135.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/1200Z 20.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:14 UTC