Tropical Storm BEATRIZ

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TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011
800 AM PDT MON JUN 20 2011
 
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF BEATRIZ CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A
LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN A CDO-LIKE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE
TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE FIRST
FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A RATHER AMORPHOUS-LOOKING CLOUD PATTERN.
OVERALL...THE CYCLONE STILL APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON
THE 1200 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THAT TIME.  AFTER 48 HOURS
BEATRIZ SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NHC
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM CLOSELY AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED
CLOSER TO THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND A BIT NORTH OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 320/8...BUT
REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN.  BEATRIZ IS GAINING LATITUDE DUE TO
WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AS A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...THE
RIDGE WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD RESULT IN BEATRIZ TURNING 
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST BY 72 HOURS. 
THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN WILL BE
CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ COMES TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  AFTER 72 HOURS...
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND MOVE WESTWARD IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  DESPITE THE MORE NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION...MUCH
OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT FOR THIS CYCLE.  THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON CONTINUITY AND IS ESSENTIALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE BEATRIZ LATER TODAY...AND PROVIDE VALUABLE INFORMATION
ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.  CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
LATER TODAY.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THOSE
AREAS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 16.3N 102.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 17.1N 103.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 18.1N 104.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 19.8N 106.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 20.0N 110.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 20.0N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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