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Hurricane ADRIAN


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
800 PM PDT WED JUN 08 2011
 
ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN AND A RAGGED
EYE ON THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY
DEEPER CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER THAN EARLIER TODAY. IN
ADDITION...A 37 GHZ WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS AT 0020 UTC INDICATES A
CLOSED RING AND INCREASED ORGANIZATION TO THE EYEWALL. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC WERE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT
SINCE THAT TIME THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY TO 70 KT.

THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE LEFT AND HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL STEER ADRIAN
ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE HAS BEEN
ANOTHER LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS...LED BY THE NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS
SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IS STILL TO THE EAST OF MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL/GFDN MODELS ARE WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THEY ARE CONSIDERED HIGHLY
UNLIKELY SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME.

THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING ITS ENTIRE LIFE
CYCLE...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF REASON TO THINK THIS WILL STOP
ANYTIME SOON. THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION...AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD STAY
ABOVE 29C FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
ANOTHER 24H PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO DECREASING SSTS AND
INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...
BOTH OF WHICH SHOW ADRIAN AS A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE
HURRICANE WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER VERY COOL WATERS IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...
WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING PROCESS.

AS A RESULT OF THE LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK...AND A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN THE
ASSOCIATED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 13.8N 102.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 14.4N 103.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 15.1N 104.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 15.6N 105.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 16.1N 106.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 17.5N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 18.5N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:11 UTC