ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011 PHILIPPE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE UPPER-WIND PATTERN AHEAD OF PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CUT-OFF AND MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCTION OF THE SHEAR AND THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR SOME MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...IN AN AREA OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM OPHELIA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AND THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS. PHILIPPE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER. THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 17.4N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 18.3N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 19.8N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 21.2N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 22.2N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 23.8N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 24.5N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0000Z 24.5N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:08 UTC