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Tropical Storm PHILIPPE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011
 
PHILIPPE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...HOWEVER DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A
LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE UPPER-WIND PATTERN AHEAD OF PHILIPPE
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.  AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO CUT-OFF AND MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD.  THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A REDUCTION OF THE SHEAR AND THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
NOW CALLS FOR SOME MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM
GUIDANCE.  IN 2 TO 3 DAYS PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...IN AN AREA OF STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM OPHELIA.  THIS
SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 4 DAYS.

THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AND THE GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS. 
PHILIPPE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN
WESTWARD AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE
WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.  THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 17.4N  40.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 18.3N  42.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 19.8N  43.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 21.2N  45.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 22.2N  47.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 23.8N  50.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 24.5N  55.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/0000Z 24.5N  59.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:08 UTC