ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
0900 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 1 2 2 1 1 1
TROP DEPRESSION 12 15 13 8 5 3 5
TROPICAL STORM 85 75 70 56 44 29 39
HURRICANE 2 8 15 34 50 67 55
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 7 13 27 35 40 34
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 5 10 18 14
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 4 7 5
HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 2 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 80KT 80KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) X(18)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 4(27) X(27)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
PONCE 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
SAN JUAN 34 X 7( 7) 14(21) 3(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 1 25(26) 10(36) 2(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAINT CROIX 34 1 15(16) 6(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24)
SAINT CROIX 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 11 56(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 21 25(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BARBUDA 34 69 14(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
BARBUDA 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ANTIGUA 34 66 5(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
ANTIGUA 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GUADELOUPE 34 42 X(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
AVES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DOMINICA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:00 UTC