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Tropical Storm MARIA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       1       2       2       1       1       1
TROP DEPRESSION 12      15      13       8       5       3       5
TROPICAL STORM  85      75      70      56      44      29      39
HURRICANE        2       8      15      34      50      67      55
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       7      13      27      35      40      34
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       5      10      18      14
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       2       4       7       5
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       1       2       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    45KT    50KT    60KT    70KT    80KT    80KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  25(27)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   X(14)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   6(18)   X(18)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  18(23)   4(27)   X(27)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
PONCE          34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   7( 7)  14(21)   3(24)   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  1  25(26)  10(36)   2(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  1  15(16)   6(22)   1(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34 11  56(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 21  25(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  1   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARBUDA        34 69  14(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
BARBUDA        50  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ANTIGUA        34 66   5(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
ANTIGUA        50  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GUADELOUPE     34 42   X(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
AVES           34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
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