Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED
WITHIN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN
BANDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE LEADING TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON A DEVELOPING
TREND...BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THE PATH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...
FOLLOWING THE LGEM MODEL. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...BUT THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AS
IT NEARS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 
 
SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED AND WE DID NOT HAVE A WELL
DEFINED CENTER BEFORE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS MOVING THE CYCLONE VERY FAST ON
A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE
SLOWER AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THESE
TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BIASED A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE
ECMWF.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 11.8N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 12.3N  39.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 12.9N  43.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 13.7N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 14.5N  50.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 16.0N  57.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 17.0N  62.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 19.5N  66.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:00 UTC