Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm EMILY


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011
 
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SO FAR...
WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER AND FAIR UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EMILY
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS AROUND 1007 MB...
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT OR VARIABLE ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL
FOR STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE STORM...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. 
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP EMILY...AND IN FACT...BOTH MODELS BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE NEAR HISPANIOLA.
 
FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS
BEEN MEANDERING AND MAY BE REORGANIZING NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY.  A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE EMILY ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTH THEREAFTER.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 15.3N  63.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 15.7N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 16.5N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 17.5N  70.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 19.0N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/1200Z 22.5N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  06/1200Z 26.5N  78.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 30.0N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:46 UTC