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Hurricane DARBY


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010
 
DARBY REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING A DISTINCT EYE AND AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN. DVORAK
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1800 UTC WERE
T5.5...102 KT.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL. THUS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 105 KT.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT FUTURE STRENGTHENING.  THIS SHEAR WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND CAUSE DARBY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.  MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...
AND THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/5.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE DARBY TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS HAVE WILDLY DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE HWRF CONTINUING A WESTWARD MOTION OF DARBY AND
THE ECMWF/UKMET SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION.  MOST OF THIS
DISAGREEMENT IS CAUSED BY THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND WHETHER THE MUCH-SMALLER DARBY GETS
CAUGHT UP IN WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO.  IT IS BEST TO STAY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...A LITTLE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
DARBY IS THE EARLIEST SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE FORMATION IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1971...ECLIPSING OF
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF HURRICANE DANIEL ON JUNE 30 1978.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 13.6N 101.5W   105 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 13.7N 102.3W   105 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 13.5N 103.3W   100 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 13.4N 103.8W    90 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 13.5N 104.2W    80 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 14.0N 103.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 14.3N 102.7W    55 KT
120HR VT     30/1800Z 14.6N 102.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:31 UTC