Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane CELIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 0907 UTC AMSR-E AQUA-1
OVERPASS SHOW THAT CELIA HAS A WELL DEFINED 20 N MI EYE SURROUNDED
BY A VERY SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND IS SHOWING SOME
CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR HURRICANE.  THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE
EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOME THIS MORNING...AND IT APPEARS THAT CELIA
HAS COMMENCED ITS EXPECTED WEAKENING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 130 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 130 KT AND AN 0900 UTC
CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 135 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. 
SUBSEQUENTLY...CELIA IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
48 HOURS...AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 5 DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/11.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SHOULD REMAIN INTACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST. THIS
CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE CELIA TO SLOW AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS THE CYCLONE
DECAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 13.8N 118.1W   130 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 14.5N 119.5W   115 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 15.3N 121.2W    95 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 15.9N 122.6W    70 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 16.2N 123.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 16.5N 126.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N 127.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:29 UTC