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Hurricane CELIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 AM PDT THU JUN 24 2010
 
CELIA APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH YET ANOTHER RE-STRENGTHENING PHASE
BASED ON A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. DEEP CONVECTION
...WITH SOME TOPS AS COLD AS -86C...HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PREVIOUSLY
CONVECTION-VOID WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB AND T5.0/90 KT FROM SAB USING THE
EMBEDDED CENTER TECHNIQUE. SINCE THE 06Z FIXES...DEEP CONVECTION
HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
HAS ALSO BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. HOWEVER...I WOULD PREFER TO SEE
AN EYE APPEAR IN INFRARED IMAGERY BEFORE BRINGING CELIA BACK UP TO
MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS A BLEND
OF THE TWO DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...CELIA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION TOWARD A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WEAKENS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE...WHICH SHOULD FORCE CELIA ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
A 24/0215Z SSMI-S WATER VAPOR IMAGE INDICATED A NARROW BAND OF DRY
AIR HAD BEEN DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH LIKELY LED
TO THE EARLIER EROSION OF CONVECTION IN THAT PART OF THE STORM.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE RECENT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION...IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE DRY AIR HAS BEEN MIXED OUT.
CELIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS AND IN A LOW
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE...HOWEVER...COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THAT PERIOD WHICH CAN
NOT BE SPECIFICALLY FORECAST. BY 48 HOURS...CELIA WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AROUND 25C...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SLOW BUT
STEADY WEAKENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 24 HOURS...
AND AFTERWARD CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DOWNWARD TREND OF THE SHIPS AND
LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 12.6N 112.8W    95 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 13.0N 114.6W   100 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 13.7N 117.0W   100 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 14.4N 119.1W    95 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 15.1N 120.9W    85 KT
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 16.2N 123.9W    60 KT
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     29/0600Z 16.5N 126.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:29 UTC