Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane CELIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF CELIA HAS TRANSITIONED FROM A CDO TO A
BANDING PATTERN TODAY. OVERALL...THE SATELLITE STRUCTURE APPEARS TO
HAVE DEGRADED SLIGHTLY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS SOLID. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...AS THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
SIGNS AS TO WHY THE CYCLONE SHOULD NOT EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN.
EASTERLY SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY INHIBITING AND THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THE
LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY..THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BELOW THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... IT CONTINUES TO
SHOW CELIA NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE DAYS...WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
 
CELIA REMAINS ON A WESTWARD HEADING OR 275/8 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  CELIA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE...BUT IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE TVCN CONSENSUS.  HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS NOT AS SLOW AS THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH CONTINUES TO
INSIST ON A WEAKER RIDGE THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IN A
FEW DAYS. THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE
HURRICANE IN THAT MODEL.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 11.8N 106.3W    85 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 11.9N 107.7W    90 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 12.1N 109.8W    95 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 12.4N 112.1W   100 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 12.9N 114.3W   100 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 14.4N 118.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 15.5N 122.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 16.5N 125.0W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:29 UTC