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Tropical Depression ONE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012010
500 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA HAS DEVELOPED
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE
FIRST OF THE 2010 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A 29/0323Z ASCAT
OVERPASS...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/05 KT. THE CENTER HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH ACTIVE AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES SMALL BANDING
FEATURES BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF A LOW-LATITUDE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS STEERING PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND
AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
MOVE ON A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD COURSE...
BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA
BORDER IN 36 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER AND IS IN FACT
ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST. THIS TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT THE MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN...DUE TO THE UNLIKELY SHARP
EASTWARD TRACK INTO THE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST BY THE HWRF MODEL. 

THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW 35-KT WIND VECTORS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...SUGGESTING THAT THIS CYCLONE MAY
ALREADY BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION
IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 30C
SSTS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING
SHOULD OCCUR. THE PROXIMITY TO MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN MAY INHIBIT
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...BUT THIS TREND WILL BE MORE CLOSELY
ASSESSED LATER TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SATELLITE INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.
 
DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN...
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND AS
FAR INLAND AS HONDURAS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1200Z 12.9N  93.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 13.0N  93.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 13.3N  92.2W    50 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 13.7N  91.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 14.4N  91.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 14.9N  91.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 96HR VT     02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:26 UTC