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Hurricane RICHARD


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
 
OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE INDICATE THAT RICHARD HAS
INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE PLANE REPORTED MAXIMUM 850
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE
WINDS OF 74 KT...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER THE AREA AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  
BELIZE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL.  GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND ENVIRONMENT...RICHARD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IS ABOVE THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES
LAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WHEN RICHARD EMERGES INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...290/10.  ASIDE FROM BEING
SLIGHTLY FASTER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT
ALTERATIONS WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST.  RICHARD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
AFTERWARDS...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 16.9N  86.9W    75 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 17.4N  88.4W    85 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 17.8N  90.2W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 18.4N  91.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 19.1N  93.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 20.5N  94.5W    20 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 21.5N  95.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:22 UTC