Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm RICHARD


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
 
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT AN EYE HAS BEEN TRYING TO FORM WITHIN A RING OF CLOUD TOPS
WITH TEMPERATURES OF -70C AND COLDER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A
NEARLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL EYE NOTED IN AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS AND IN
BELIZE DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE RICHARD...AND I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE FOUND WITH THIS CYCLONE WHEN
THE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES AT AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BEING HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED AND
RAGGED NATURE OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR
IN QUADRANTS...BUT HAS GRADUALLY BEEN IMPROVING AND BECOMING MORE
SYMMETRICAL.

RICHARD IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 285/09. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON RICHARD MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF RICHARD NEAR THE BELIZE COAST IN
ABOUT 18 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THE
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 96-120
HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN OR SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO VERY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AT ONLY 5-10 KT RIGHT
UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE BELIZE-YUCATAN COAST. IF THE EYE
FEATURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER THIS MORNING...THERE ARE NO
PHYSICAL REASONS WHY RICHARD SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY RIGHT UP UNTIL
LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY SINCE WATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE
ARE NEAR 29.5C AND MID-LEVEL HUMIDITIES ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. AFTER
LANDFALL OCCURS...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND RICHARD IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODERATE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ARE EXPECTED
TO INHIBIT RE-STRENGTHENING AFTER 72 HOURS EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE OVER WARM WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS DUE TO THE RECENT
APPEARANCE OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 16.5N  85.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.8N  87.1W    75 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 17.2N  89.0W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 17.6N  90.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 18.2N  91.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N  93.5W    20 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 21.0N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:22 UTC