Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm NICOLE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION SINCE YESTERDAY. 
ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS OF
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.  BASED ON THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND THE SURFACE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE.  

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF NICOLE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST
OF CUBA AROUND 1200 UTC THIS MORNING.  SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE
CYCLONE CORE CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS STILL OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER.  THE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL OR
NORTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY.  THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  NICOLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE AS THE
EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMES THE DOMINANT EVENT.  THE NEW NHC
TRACK IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS
DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MUCH SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
PREDICTED.  GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SCENARIO...HOWEVER...
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. 
 
BASED ON THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM NICOLE IS
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF JAMAICA AND
CUBA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 22.6N  80.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 24.7N  79.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 29.4N  78.4W    35 KT...POST-TROPICAL
 36HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:20 UTC