Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm KARL


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL EARLY
THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT SINCE
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 995 MB AND THE MAXIMUM UNCONTAMINATED
SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND VELOCITIES WERE ABOUT 55 KT...WHICH IS
THE VALUE USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY INTENSITY.  SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT A RATHER SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
IS DEVELOPING OVER KARL...SO SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION COULD
OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL.  FORTUNATELY...THE TIME IS SHORT BEFORE THE
CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST.
 
KARL WOBBLED WESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES
INDICATE THAT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 285/11...HAS
RESUMED.  BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THEREFORE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD TRACK APPEARS LIKELY...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CENTER ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 18.5N  86.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.1N  88.3W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.7N  92.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.3N  94.4W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.4N  97.2W    75 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 100.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:18 UTC