Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm KARL


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010
 
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KARL
EARLIER THIS EVENING FOUND PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT
AND SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 34-39 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF
THE CENTER AS IT EXITED THE STORM.  THESE DATA WERE THE BASIS FOR
THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THAT
TIME...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.  THE NEXT AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH KARL
AROUND 0600 UTC.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES AND A COUPLE OF RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL
MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME LIGHT
EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
INHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE KARL REACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THE
GFDL...LGEM...SHIPS...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW KARL
AT HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND MODEL
AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KARL TO HURRICANE STATUS
AT THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH INCREASED SPREAD THEREAFTER...AS SOME OF THE
MODELS TURN KARL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 18.6N  85.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 19.2N  87.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 20.0N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 20.7N  91.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 21.1N  93.4W    50 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  96.7W    65 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N 100.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:18 UTC