Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane IGOR


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  A TIGHTLY-COILED BAND...WITH CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES TO -85C...WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE INTO
A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  AN EYE FEATURE HAS ALSO BEEN
BRIEFLY INTERMITTENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A
NUMBER OF MICROWAVE PASSES SEVERAL HOURS AGO REVEALED A DISTINCT
CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING THE CENTER.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS
AT 0000 UTC WERE A CONSENSUS 4.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES...AND
3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE 4.3.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT THIS ADVISORY...MAKING IGOR THE FOURTH
HURRICANE OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE UNDERLYING
OCEAN ONLY GETS WARMER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF IGOR...PEAKING
AROUND 29C IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THAT...COMBINED WITH A LIGHT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...WOULD FAVOR A STRENGTHENING TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND NEARLY ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES IGOR A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...WHILE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
MAY OCCUR...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AND
BE A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC.
 
IGOR HAS MAINTAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME MOTION...275/15...THOUGH
PERHAPS A TAD SLOWER THAN EARLIER.  SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS...CARRYING IGOR ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.  BEYOND THIS
TIME...DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW IGOR SLOWING AND TURNING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES INTO A SUBSTANTIAL
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS WAS THE CASE IN THE PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF THE RIGHTMOST OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND THE UKMET/NOGAPS THE LEFTMOST.  THESE DIFFERENCES
SEEM TO HINGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WITH THE FORMER MODELS FORECASTING A WEAKER RIDGE DISPLACED
TO THE EAST WHILE LATTER INDICATE A MORE ROBUST RIDGE EXTENDING
FARTHER WEST.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
THE RIGHT...FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE... BUT IS NOT AS
FAR RIGHT AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 17.7N  42.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 17.8N  44.8W    75 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 17.9N  47.4W    80 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 18.1N  49.7W    90 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 18.4N  51.9W   100 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 19.5N  55.0W   110 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 21.5N  58.0W   115 KT
120HR VT     17/0000Z 23.5N  61.0W   115 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:14 UTC