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Tropical Depression BONNIE


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF BONNIE AROUND 0400
UTC. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND RAPIDLY BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE LAST PASS THROUGH BONNIE FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE AIRCRAFT THAT DEPARTED THE DEPRESSION AROUND 0600 UTC FOUND
MAXIMUM 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 1013 MB.  THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING BONNIE AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE AND
SHOULD BE IN THE CENTER VERY SHORTLY.

BONNIE HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/15.  BONNIE REMAINS IN A WELL
ESTABLISHED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND BONNIE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE PRIOR TO BONNIE
REACHING THE COAST AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT REMAINS POSSIBLE
IS FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH TODAY.  THAT SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 27.0N  85.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 28.0N  87.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 29.4N  89.7W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 30.8N  91.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 32.1N  92.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 35.0N  93.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:03 UTC