Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm RICK


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009
 
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY THIS EVENING WITH RICK AS VERY
DEEP THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED ON THE INFRARED
CHANNEL...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SHEAR
WITH THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT...AND SO WILL
THE INTITIAL WIND SPEED. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIKELY
CANCELLING OUT THE EFFECTS OF WARMER WATERS. AFTER LANDFALL...
WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE RAPID AS RICK RUNS INTO THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND THERE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 HR.
 
THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE RECONNAISSANCE LEFT...
BUT AN ESTIMATE OF 050/10 IS USED AS A COMPROMISE OF CONVENTIONAL
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER RICK NORTHEASTWARD AND CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.  MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WERE TO DECOUPLE...
LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEHIND WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER
MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  IF THAT SITUATION OCCURS...THE
SYSTEM COULD MOVE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 20.9N 109.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 22.0N 107.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 23.7N 105.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 25.5N 103.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48HR VT     23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:31 UTC