Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane RICK


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
800 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2009

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ANALYZED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE SHIPS MODEL
AND UW-CIMSS...APPEARS TO BE TAKING A TOLL ON RICK. THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...WITH AN EROSION OF THE COLD
CLOUD TOPS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE
EYE IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. AN AMSR-E PASS FROM 0913 UTC SHOWED
THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN EYEWALL HAS ERODED AND ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE
CIRCULATION MAY BE BECOMING VERTICALLY TILTED. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS AND CI-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE RICK
AND WILL PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA TO HELP DETERMINE THE INTENSITY AND
STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
 
THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT RICK WILL BE EXPERIENCING VERTICAL
SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. GIVEN THIS...ALONG
WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...BUT REMAINS ABOVE THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS
THROUGH 24 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY. BEYOND 24 HOURS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO ICON AND SHOWS RICK WEAKENING TO A
TROPICAL STORM IN 72 HOURS AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN MAINLAND
MEXICO.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. RICK
SEEMS TO BE SLOWING DOWN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE WEAKENS DUE TO A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOST
OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A SCENARIO
THAT SHOWS RICK ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
...WHERE THE CIRCULATION OF RICK BECOMES VERTICALLY DECOUPLED
LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEHIND...IS REPRESENTED BY THE UKMET
MODEL AND THE SHALLOW BAM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE FIRST
SCENARIO...AND IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BEYOND 12 HOURS TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN THE FIRST
12 HOURS...THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
 
THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON INFORMATION FROM AN
ASCAT PASS AT AROUND 0500 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 17.8N 111.6W   100 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 18.6N 112.2W    90 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 19.7N 111.9W    80 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 21.1N 111.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 22.8N 109.6W    70 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 25.5N 106.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:31 UTC