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Hurricane RICK


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
200 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2009

AS RICK MOVES THROUGH A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DEGRADED FURTHER WITH THE EYE NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
DRIER AIR IS INTRUDING FROM THE WEST INTO THE CIRCULATION.  
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE HURRICANE...AND 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT OF A GUESS SINCE THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN KNOWN TO NOT WORK VERY WELL FOR WEAKENING
TROPICAL CYCLONES.  BLENDING THE T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDED 115 KT AT 0600 UTC AND SINCE THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE MORE SINCE THEN THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE RICK LATER TODAY AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE HURRICANE.  EVEN
THOUGH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SO HOSTILE AS TO
WEAKEN RICK BELOW HURRICANE STATUS BY THE TIME IT MOVES NEAR OR
OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED SOME MORE AND IS NOW NEAR 305/9.  THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RICK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA.  A
SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DROP INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN A DAY OR SO.  RICK IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY THE FIRST TROUGH.  THEN...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUITE EXCLUDING THE U.K. MET. OFFICE RUN.   THE ENVELOPE
OF THIS SUITE IS BRACKETED BY THE ECMWF TRACK...WHICH IS THE
SOUTHERNMOST MODEL AND THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH IS THE NORTHERNMOST. 
THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL CONTINUES TO BE AN UNREALISTIC-LOOKING
OUTLIER SINCE IT SHOWS LITTLE NET MOTION OF RICK OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 

SINCE RICK COULD MOVE A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THE CURRENT
AND PREDICTED EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 17.5N 111.1W   110 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 18.4N 111.8W   105 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 19.5N 112.1W   100 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 20.8N 111.5W    90 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 22.3N 110.2W    85 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 25.5N 107.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:31 UTC