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Hurricane RICK


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF RICK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AROUND
THE EYE...AS THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE COLDEST TOPS HAS DECREASED.  
ALSO...THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS THINNED...WITH A
TONGUE OF DRY AIR EVIDENT IN VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY ABOUT 100
MILES FROM THE CENTER. CONSISTENT WITH THESE TRENDS...SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED. DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS
WERE 6.5/7.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 140 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. 

WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND RICK REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE SHORT TERM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...BUT STILL LIES
ABOVE THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND RICK WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEYOND 24 HOURS IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE GFDL. RICK IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BAJA AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER
LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12. RICK IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 135W AMPLIFIES AND
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE RICK TO
TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE HOW QUICKLY RICK WILL MOVE AS IT
RECURVES. BY 72 HOURS...THE ECMWF...GFDL AND GFDN ARE CONSIDERABLY
FASTER...WHILE THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE SLOWER.
THIS SPREAD APPEARS TO BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF HOW
RICK INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...
GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST...RICK IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN
TWO OR THREE DAYS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. INTERESTS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN
BAJA AND ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 16.4N 109.4W   140 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 17.1N 110.7W   130 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 18.3N 111.7W   120 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 19.4N 111.9W   105 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 20.7N 111.4W    95 KT
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 24.0N 109.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 26.0N 106.5W    45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:31 UTC