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Hurricane RICK


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT RICK APPARENTLY PEAKED BETWEEN 0200
AND 0400 UTC THIS MORNING. SINCE THAT TIME...THE WARM EYE
TEMPERATURE HAS FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 10 AND 13 DEGREES
CELSIUS WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 1230 UTC SSMIS PASS SHOWED A WEAKENING
OF THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AND FRAGMENTS OF A DEVELOPING OUTER
RING.  IF THE INNER EYEWALL WEAKENS FURTHER...RICK COULD WEAKEN MORE
QUICKLY THAN INDICATED HERE. GIVEN THAT THE OBJECTIVE ADVANCED
DVORAK INTENSITY 3-HOUR TREND SUGGESTS SLIGHT WEAKENING...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 150 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AS THE
CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
SHEAR IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE SYSTEM THROUGH DAY 5 AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA AND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN
HEDGES MORE TOWARD THE LGEM AND DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/12...AS RICK IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO CENTRAL
MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE RICK TO TURN NORTHWARD. BY
48 HOURS AND BEYOND RICK SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HWRF
AND THE UKMET...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
INDICATE A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AFTER 48
HOURS BUT REMAINS ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RICK IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  INTERESTS IN
THAT AREA AND ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 15.8N 108.3W   150 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.5N 109.8W   150 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.6N 111.1W   140 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.6N 111.7W   125 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.9N 111.6W   110 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 23.0N 110.0W    85 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 25.5N 107.5W    70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:31 UTC