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Hurricane RICK


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
 
RICK IS STILL INTENSIFYING...WITH THE 10 NM WIDE EYE BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED AND THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS COOLING DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 127 KT
AT 18Z...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 130 KT BASED ON
THIS AND THE SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.  THE CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  QUIKSCAT DATA NEAR
14Z INDICATED THAT RICK IS GROWING LARGER IN SIZE...AND THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY.
 
RICK SHOULD REMAIN IN A NEARLY-IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 18
HRS OR SO. THUS...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS OR IT REACHES THE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL
INTENSITY FOR THAT AREA. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS IN ABOUT 12
HRS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER THAT...GRADUALLY
COOLING SSTS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD START A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
LAND INTERACTION ALSO BECOMING A FACTOR DURING THE 96-120 HR
PERIOD. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE GENERAL TREND INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  RICK
REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HRS AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. 
THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER RICK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48
HRS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE
FROM 48-120 HRS.  THE 12Z DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST RICK TO MOVE
FASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER RECURVATURE THAN THEIR
EARLIER RUNS...WITH THE ECMWF...GDFL...AND HWRF MODELS NOW
FORECASTING RICK TO PASS NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY 96 HRS.  THE GFS...
NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE SAME GENERAL TRACK BUT AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED EASTWARD
FROM AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR
RICK TO BE NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 96 HR AND THEN
MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 120 HR.  IF CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.
 
INTERESTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 14.8N 104.5W   130 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.3N 106.5W   140 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N 108.8W   140 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 17.0N 110.7W   130 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 17.9N 111.7W   120 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W   105 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 22.5N 111.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     22/1800Z 25.5N 108.5W    65 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:31 UTC