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Hurricane RICK


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009
 
RICK IS RAPIDLY SPINNING UP THIS MORNING AS A CURVED BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER.  BASED UPON
THIS STRUCTURE...THE DVORAK ESTIMATES CAME IN FROM SAB AND TAFB AT
T3.5 AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY.  BECAUSE OF CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
SINCE THE SYNOPTIC TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65
KT...MAKING RICK THE 7TH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON.

RICK IS MOVING 280/08...WHILE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF A STRONG
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE.  THIS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE TO CONTINUE
STEERING RICK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.  AT THE LONGER RANGES...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN WHETHER RICK
WILL CONTINUE AS A STRAIGHT-MOVER...SLOW SUBSTANTIALLY...OR RECURVE
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS...GFDL AND
HWRF...ARE CALLING FOR THE LATTER SCENARIO...BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE
BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN UNREALISTICALLY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...SOUTHWESTWARD...OF THE PREVIOUS NHC
PREDICTION...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS ALSO
SHIFTED SOME TO THE LEFT.
 
RICK IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
ABUNDANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND THE SHIPS ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.  RICK IS ALSO TRAVERSING OVER VERY WARM...30C...WATERS. 
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH
CHANCE...74%...OF 30 KT OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
THIS IS THE BASIS FOR BRINGING RICK'S WINDS TO 90 KT TOMORROW
MORNING.  THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INHIBITING FACTORS FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS RICK PEAKING AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. 
AT THE LONGER RANGES...THE SSTS ENCOUNTERED BY RICK SHOULD COOL
SOME WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SOME.  WEAKENING TO A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE IS THUS INDICATED BY DAY 5.  THE INTENSITY
PREDICTION IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 12.7N  99.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 12.9N 100.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 13.3N 102.4W    90 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 13.7N 104.6W   100 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 14.3N 106.9W   115 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N 111.0W   115 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W   105 KT
120HR VT     21/1200Z 19.0N 113.5W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:31 UTC