ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009 PATRICIA IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THEREFORE CANNOT BE ASSIGNED A DATA T-NUMBER VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. HOWEVER A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN C6FV9 REPORTED 32-KT WINDS ABOUT 75 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. PATRICIA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF STABLE AIR AND OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS VERY SOON...AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY...OR LESS. LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE LEFT IS OCCURRING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 325/5. AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PATRICIA OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL LOSING ITS IDENTITY. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS SO CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THAT AREA ARE ALSO MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THEY WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 22.6N 109.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 22.9N 109.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 23.0N 111.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 15/1200Z 23.0N 113.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 16/0000Z 23.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 17/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:30 UTC