Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm PATRICIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009

PATRICIA IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THEREFORE CANNOT BE
ASSIGNED A DATA T-NUMBER VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  HOWEVER A SHIP
WITH CALL SIGN C6FV9 REPORTED 32-KT WINDS ABOUT 75 N MI NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A MARGINAL
TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  PATRICIA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
AN ENVIRONMENT OF STABLE AIR AND OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS VERY SOON...AND DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY...OR LESS.

LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE LEFT IS
OCCURRING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 325/5.
AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PATRICIA OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN TO THE
WEST IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
UNTIL LOSING ITS IDENTITY.

SINCE THE SYSTEM IS SO CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...AND TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THAT AREA ARE ALSO MAINTAINED AT THIS
TIME.  HOWEVER THEY WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 22.6N 109.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 22.9N 109.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 23.0N 111.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 23.0N 113.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 23.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:30 UTC