ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009 200 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2009 ALTHOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL...THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS REQUIRES THAT THE WINDS BE ADJUSTED TO 30 KT. THE QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO REVEALED THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY BE STARTING TO LOSE DEFINITION. BETWEEN THE LIMITED CONVECTION AND THE MARGINAL CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL ALL INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL RESTRENGTHEN...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DISSIPATION. AS NOTED EARLIER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS FAIRLY DRY...AND WHILE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT CONVERGENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW FAVORS THE GLOBAL MODEL...AND HWRF...SOLUTIONS AND NO LONGER SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...BAM SHALLOW AND GFDL SHOWING A SLOW MOTION AND EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH THE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS BUT IS STILL MUCH FASTER THAN THIS GROUP OF MODELS. THE ALTERNATIVE...AND NOW LESS FAVORED SOLUTION OF A CONTINUED BRISK WESTWARD TRACK...IS OFFERED BY THE UKMET...GFDN/NOGAPS...AND BAM DEEP. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 14.1N 133.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 13.7N 134.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 13.2N 136.3W 30 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 12.7N 138.1W 25 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 12.5N 139.2W 25 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 12.5N 140.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 12.5N 142.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 12.5N 143.0W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:21 UTC