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Tropical Depression NINE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009
200 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2009
 
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL...THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
REQUIRES THAT THE WINDS BE ADJUSTED TO 30 KT.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS
ALSO REVEALED THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY BE STARTING TO LOSE
DEFINITION.  BETWEEN THE LIMITED CONVECTION AND THE MARGINAL
CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR
DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME.  THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL ALL INDICATE
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL RESTRENGTHEN...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DISSIPATION.  AS NOTED EARLIER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS FAIRLY DRY...AND
WHILE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT CONVERGENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW FAVORS
THE GLOBAL MODEL...AND HWRF...SOLUTIONS AND NO LONGER SHOWS
REDEVELOPMENT.

THERE IS ALSO A LARGE DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE
GFS...ECMWF...BAM SHALLOW AND GFDL SHOWING A SLOW MOTION AND
EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH THE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY RELATIVE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS BUT IS STILL MUCH FASTER THAN THIS
GROUP OF MODELS.  THE ALTERNATIVE...AND NOW LESS FAVORED SOLUTION
OF A CONTINUED BRISK WESTWARD TRACK...IS OFFERED BY THE
UKMET...GFDN/NOGAPS...AND BAM DEEP.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 14.1N 133.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 13.7N 134.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 13.2N 136.3W    30 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 12.7N 138.1W    25 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 12.5N 139.2W    25 KT
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 12.5N 140.5W    25 KT
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 12.5N 142.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     17/1800Z 12.5N 143.0W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:21 UTC