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Hurricane FELICIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009
 
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH FELICIA HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DETERIORATED
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. MOREOVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED CONSIDERABLY AND THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS BECOME
ASYMMETRIC. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 5.0 FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB.  THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE BEING REDUCED TO 100 KT ON
THIS ADVISORY...THOUGH THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/9...THE SAME MOTION THAT HAS
PERSISTED WITH LITTLE DEVIATION FOR THE LAST 48 HOURS.  AT THE
MOMENT...FELICIA IS TRACKING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LYING NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
AND CAUSES FELICIA TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER FELICIA...LIKELY A MORE
SHALLOW SYSTEM...BEING STEERED WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE BEYOND 24
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.
 
FELICIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH THE MAIN CONTROLLING FACTOR ON INTENSITY
LIKELY TO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY
SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOTED
ABOVE...SHOULD ACCELERATE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND IN SPITE OF
MARGINALLY WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WEST OF 150W. SHOULD
FELICIA MOVE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS...THERE IS
SOME CHANCE THAT THE RATE OF WEAKENING COULD BE SLOWER THAN
FORECAST.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 17.5N 134.4W   100 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 18.2N 135.7W    85 KT
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 19.0N 137.7W    70 KT
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 19.4N 140.1W    60 KT
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 19.6N 142.7W    50 KT
 72HR VT     10/0600Z 19.5N 148.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     11/0600Z 19.0N 153.5W    25 KT
120HR VT     12/0600Z 19.0N 159.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:20 UTC