Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ANDRES


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009
800 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2009
 
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ANDRES
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DEVELOP...WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED 
WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  EARLIER TRMM AND AMSU-B PASSES
ALSO INDICATE WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND THE POSSIBLE
FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL.  0000 UTC T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE BOTH 3.5 AND ARE USED TO SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55
KT.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGES
AND CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS SHOW A LARGE AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO...WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST. 
ANDRES' CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...FORECAST REASONABLY WELL BY
SEVERAL TRACK MODELS...APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS ...WHICH SHOULD STEER ANDRES MORE TOWARD THE WEST...BUT NOT
BEFORE IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW NEARLY 20 KT OF NORTHEAST TO EAST
SHEAR OVER ANDRES AND MOST OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE IN ABOUT A DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT UPWARD
INTENSITY TREND AND THE WARM SSTS ALONG ITS TRACK...A CONTINUED BUT
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS IS ANTICIPATED. 
ANDRES IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS BUT
SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN INGESTING STABLE AIR IN ABOUT
36 HOURS...RESULTING IN A MORE RAPID DECREASE IN STRENGTH.  IT
SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT...IF ANDRES MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...IT COULD INTERACT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LAND AND
WEAKEN FASTER.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 16.8N 103.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 17.8N 104.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 19.2N 105.6W    65 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 20.5N 107.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 21.0N 108.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 22.0N 118.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:15 UTC