Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression ERIKA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009
500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009
 
THE CENTER OF ERIKA IS EXPOSED AS A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF THE WANING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...BUT WERE UNABLE TO FIND ANY WINDS TO
SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STATUS. AS A RESULT...ERIKA IS DOWNGRADED TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND THE MAJORITY OF ALL THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. SINCE ERIKA SHOULD MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE
SHALLOW BAM MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE NEW FORECAST TRACK.
THIS FORECAST TURNS ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...TAKING THE
CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANT LOW SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER HISPANIOLA
...WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN IN 48 HOURS.
 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT ERIKA WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
SUSTAINING ANY DEEP CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERE. ERIKA
IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH 12 HOURS...AND IS
FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS....ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
OCCUR SOONER IF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
THE CENTER OF ERIKA COULD BECOME POORLY DEFINED AND THE CYCLONE
COULD DEVOLVE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AT ANY TIME. EVEN IF ERIKA LOSES
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS...ITS REMNANTS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 16.7N  65.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 17.2N  66.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 18.1N  68.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 18.9N  70.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 19.5N  72.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 72HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:09 UTC