Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression ANA


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
1100 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009
 
THE CENTER OR WAVE AXIS OF ANA PASSED OVER BUOY 42060 AROUND
0830Z...AND IF A CENTER EXISTED AT THAT TIME IT WAS SOUTH OF THE
BUOY.  THERE WAS ONE SHIP REPORT WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND AT 12Z. 
SINCE THAT TIME...NEW CONVECTION WITH A MID-LEVEL SPIN HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. GIVEN THESE
HINTS...WE WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES AT LEAST UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES ANA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH A CENTER POSITION ESTIMATE BASED ON A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND
THE MID-LEVEL ROTATION SEEN IN THE RADAR DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION
IS 285/24. ANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN
THE SHORT TERM GIVEN THE POOR DEFINITION OF THE CIRCULATION...
INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND POTENTIAL REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS FOR THE 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ANA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK
STEERING OVER OR NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE UNCERTAIN EXISTENCE OF
AN ACTUAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE LAND MASSES IN THE PATH OF THE
SYSTEM...AND HIGHLY DIVERGENT OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. THE ENVIRONMENT
OF ANA IS STILL CHARACTERIZED BY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...BOTH GLOBAL AND REGIONAL...ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE...WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW RESTRENGHENING. IF
ANA SURVIVES ITS PATH OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND EMERGES TO THE
NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER WIND PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT THERE.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS ANA AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS...ADMITTEDLY...
SOMETHING OF A HEDGE BETWEEN TWO MORE LIKELY ALTERNATIVES...THAT OF
A TROPICAL STORM NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OR IMMINENT DISSIPATION. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 17.3N  66.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 18.6N  69.4W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N  73.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 22.3N  77.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 23.7N  79.4W    30 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 26.5N  82.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 28.0N  83.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     22/1200Z 30.0N  83.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:03 UTC