Tropical Depression TWO

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
500 PM AST THU AUG 13 2009

WHILE PERSISTING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE AREA OF
CONVECTION JUST WEST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS
TOO SMALL TO BE CLASSIFIED USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  INDEED...IT
HAS BEEN ALMOST 24 HR SINCE ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXISTED TO
GET A DATA-T NUMBER.  BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION HAS DECAYED
INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA.  IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND A FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS THE BASIS FOR KEEPING A 25 KT INTENSITY
FOR THE REMNANTS THROUGH 120 HR.  SEVERAL OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING...SO IF THE SYSTEM FINDS
A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IT COULD REGENERATE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SYSTEM IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
A WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...IT
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENING TO A
TROPICAL WAVE...AND IF THIS OCCURS THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 14.2N  38.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 14.3N  39.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 14.5N  42.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 14.8N  44.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 15.1N  47.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N  54.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 19.0N  61.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     18/1800Z 23.0N  67.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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