ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182008 100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2008 DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN POLO HAS REMAINED MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DROPPED...THOUGH THE CI NUMBERS STILL SUGGEST A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM. A 1337Z QUIKSCAT PASS DID CONFIRM THE RATHER TINY STRUCTURE...20 NMI RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...OF THE CYCLONE...QUITE SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM MARCO. THE QUIKSCAT ALSO PROVIDED A PEAK BELIEVABLE-LOOKING VECTOR OF 40 KT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF RAINFALL CONTAMINATION...IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THIS WAS A TRUE WIND OR SOMEWHAT INFLATED BECAUSE OF RAIN. CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER CONFIDENT 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT...AS POLO IS BEING STEERED BY A MID TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN POLO TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME...THE GFDL AND HWRF HURRICANE MODELS CONTINUE TO RECURVE POLO AS A SUBSTANTIAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. IN CONTRAST...THE GLOBAL MODELS INSTEAD MOVE POLO AS A WEAKENING CYCLONE WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN IMPACTING POLO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ACCORDING TO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS VECTORS OVER THE STORM INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE MAY ALREADY BE EXPERIENCING MODERATE SHEAR. THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE ALSO NOT VERY CONDUCIVE WITH POLO MOVING OVER WARM SSTS BUT EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAVE BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW NONE ARE CALLING FOR POLO TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED UPON THE ICON MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST PREVIOUSLY. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO... BECOMING MORE PLAUSIBLE...IS THAT POLO HAS ALREADY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND THAT IT MAY BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER THAN ADVERTISED...IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-EMERGE THIS EVENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 9.2N 114.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 9.5N 115.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 10.1N 117.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 10.9N 119.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 11.7N 121.1W 40 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 12.5N 124.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 13.0N 127.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 13.5N 130.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH NNNN
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