Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm POLO


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008
100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2008
 
DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN POLO HAS REMAINED MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME APPARENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE
DROPPED...THOUGH THE CI NUMBERS STILL SUGGEST A 35 KT TROPICAL
STORM.  A 1337Z QUIKSCAT PASS DID CONFIRM THE RATHER TINY
STRUCTURE...20 NMI RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...OF THE
CYCLONE...QUITE SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM
MARCO.  THE QUIKSCAT ALSO PROVIDED A PEAK BELIEVABLE-LOOKING VECTOR
OF 40 KT.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF RAINFALL CONTAMINATION...IT IS NOT
KNOWN IF THIS WAS A TRUE WIND OR SOMEWHAT INFLATED BECAUSE OF RAIN. 
CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER CONFIDENT 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT...AS
POLO IS BEING STEERED BY A MID TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. 
A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN POLO
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  AFTER THIS
TIME...THE GFDL AND HWRF HURRICANE MODELS CONTINUE TO RECURVE POLO
AS A SUBSTANTIAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  IN CONTRAST...THE GLOBAL MODELS INSTEAD
MOVE POLO AS A WEAKENING CYCLONE WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN IMPACTING POLO IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS...ACCORDING TO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. 
HOWEVER...CIRRUS VECTORS OVER THE STORM INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE
MAY ALREADY BE EXPERIENCING MODERATE SHEAR.  THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE
ALSO NOT VERY CONDUCIVE WITH POLO MOVING OVER WARM SSTS BUT
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS.  ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAVE BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
NOW NONE ARE CALLING FOR POLO TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY.  THE
FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED UPON THE ICON MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS
WEAKER THAN FORECAST PREVIOUSLY.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...
BECOMING MORE PLAUSIBLE...IS THAT POLO HAS ALREADY PEAKED IN
INTENSITY AND THAT IT MAY BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER THAN
ADVERTISED...IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-EMERGE THIS EVENING.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z  9.2N 114.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z  9.5N 115.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 10.1N 117.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 10.9N 119.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 11.7N 121.1W    40 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 12.5N 124.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 13.0N 127.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     08/1800Z 13.5N 130.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:48 UTC