Tropical Storm ODILE

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TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
 
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
CENTER...IT APPEARS TO BE WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. 
A PAIR OF MICROWAVE PASSES BEFORE 06Z SUGGESTED INCREASED CORE
BANDING...AND THE 06Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T3.5.  BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.  THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT...WITH THE STATISTICAL
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS FORECASTING ODILE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
24 HOURS...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL GFDL/HWRF SHOW IMMEDIATE WEAKENING. 
GIVEN THE RECENT INTENSFICATION...AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT
LESSENING OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.  IN 36-48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...
AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12...WITH THE FASTER SPEED PERHAPS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE AND A
STRONGER INTERACTION WITH THE STRONGER EASTERLIES ALOFT.  THE
FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED...WITH A TURN TO THE WEST
EXPECTED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND HURRICANE
NORBERT.  UNTIL THEN...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE IN ACCORD WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.  ONLY
THE HWRF AND NOGAPS BRING THE CENTER INLAND.  AFTER 24-36 HOURS...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SPLIT THE UPPER AND LOWER PARTS OF THE
CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOWER PORTION MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
AND THE UPPER PORTION MORE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST.  BECAUSE THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE AS A RELATIVELY
STRONG SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
TREND.

GIVEN THAT ONLY SMALL ERRORS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS
WOULD BRING A HURRICANE TO THE COASTLINE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO
HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 16.6N 100.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.5N 102.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 17.9N 103.6W    60 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N 104.8W    60 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 18.0N 105.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 17.8N 107.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     16/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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